With more new highs in the major US averages last week, some analysts are worried about too much complacency, and therefore, the potential for a market top. Others argue that the increasingly strong US dollar and very low crude oil prices will cause a sharp increase in positive consumer sentiment that will finally encourage the public to buy stocks.
On the other hand, some are already warning about the economic threat of lower crude oil prices and arguing it might be a negative for the stock market as we head into 2015. Of course, some of the same folks thought a few years ago that the high deficit was a reason that the stock market could not go higher. The very weak performance this year of many macro hedge funds illustrates the difficulty in investing based on a long-term economic view.